Category: Wind Down

People worry that what goes up must come down, and nothing has gone up more than real estate in recent years.  Are we overdue a crash?

In this episode, we share our thoughts on the crash potential for Prescott-area real estate.

hello hello hello hello peeps good afternoon and this is randall and diane bro here in the lovely town of prescott arizona prescott arizona with vic lady yes here’s my little pickle somebody uh suggested this to us of course i immediately went on and bought it i love it and also yodles i won’t hit that yodel this time yeah yeah i’ll just let you see my pickle yeah um but anyway uh we are here where we uh wanted to chat with you about fretting a crash yeah so we’ve been having a lot of people asking us about the ever increasing home prices not just here and prescript across the country and whether we are due some catastrophic crash as we had back in the late 2000s and the answer to that at least as far as prescott is concerned is we don’t see where that would come from so the the crash in 2008 depending on where you were maybe it was a different time a lot of that was driven by people who had financing that no one should have ever given them that’s right no money down for an eight hundred thousand dollars probably not a good idea yeah so people were buying extra homes on credit and flipping them there’s a lot of stuff that was going on the the short answer on that score is that is not happening it really you know a lot of our clients are retired yep and when you retire this market in particular yeah you know they have a lot of money but not necessarily a lot of income sometimes they struggle to qualify because of things like debt ratios or income ratios right you know the the the ratios and the finances are are not and you know what they don’t weigh that uh they gotta jump those hurdles uh clearly it’s a good loan but they follow the regulations getting financing even when the interest rates are really low you think they’re begging for business guess what if you can’t make the ratio you will not get a loan it ain’t gonna happen it ain’t gonna happen it ain’t gonna happen yeah so yeah we’re not worried about a crash per se and particularly in the press kit market yeah because most of our buyers are cash buyers yes they’re retired um they’re either paying cash or they’re putting substantial amounts down for a down payment and so you know the creeping interest rates it doesn’t bother them so much because they pretty much have a pretty low mortgage yes um so if we’re kind of a unique market here yeah you may have seen there was an article i believe it was in fortune one of those magazines they listed a number of cities around the country we were one of them prescott arizona makes it makes it into this magazine as as one of the towns that is destined uh destined for a price adjustment and the reason they give is that the i’m sorry sorry are you okay um can i help you out yeah give me a hundred real quick real quick let me get that given that uh the reason they give for that is the if you look at the price of homes and divide that by the average income in the town that number is extremely high which would indicate that people are not making enough money to afford the homes there and so that that affects a lot of towns here’s the thing in prescott a lot of people are retired correct they don’t show a lot of income they have a lot of money yes so when you look at that ratio it’s going to be yeah oh you know your your uh uh property value to income is off the chart yeah he’s got four million dollars in the bank right it’s not going anywhere so we say nay to that yeah because just because we are a very unique market yeah they they ran the numbers they picked the top 10 15 cities in the country that popped at the top and they wrote an article about it um obviously they’ve never been to prescott i can’t see why that’s an issue here i don’t know of anyone i can’t think of anyone offhand who’s even close to you know oh it’s going to be difficult for them to maintain the payment on their homes these guys came here to retire and they’re having a great time and they’re going to be here for a while they’re not worried about making their house note yeah because number one either they pay cash yeah or number two they’ve had such a huge down payment their house note is negligible yeah so for us i always keep in mind the prescott market is quite unique yeah um our median age here is 55 and older so these are people who are not moving here for the industry for the jobs to start a new career this is a career test yeah and all of our friends god bless you we hope we can join you one day everybody’s having the time of their lives that’s right uh they’re golfing they’re jeeping they’re you know uh hiking they’re having a fabulous time they’re not really worried about income so when you hear these stories um don’t fret so much about prescott in itself uh this is a huge retirement town i have people who call me and say i’m looking for a 55 plus neighborhood and i’m like can i be honest all of prescott is basically 55 plus yeah it’s it’s it’s essentially a retirement community yeah i mean you don’t need to be in a particular neighborhood um most of our neighbors are retired um we’re kind of one of the few that are not but um don’t fret the crash crash here in prescott yeah i feel like it’s gonna be okay yeah i you know i i struggled to see what would what would do it yeah uh what drives a lot of our home sales here and the home value prices are people coming from other states mostly along the west coast uh that relocate here because it’s more affordable uh it’s a nice place you don’t have to go someplace where it’s a skabillion degrees uh and in 157 humidity or you know mesquite we don’t have any of that right you know it’s a very nice place so people can come here um the cost of living is low we talk in some of our other videos we talk about the arbitrage where you can sell your home where you are now typically some place like california and you can buy a home equivalent and bank a fair amount of money if the prices in california go down they may go down here too as long as we have a a as long as we’re less than california it would still make sense uh to make that move and i i i just i don’t see how um i don’t see how we end up with a bubble i really don’t i i don’t think price prices can’t keep going up the way they have i understand that we all do i think things are going to flatten out i think things are going to moderate i just don’t see a bubble that there’s something artificial that’s been holding this up all along and it’s just gonna crash i think maybe we undervalued real estate after the crash in 2008 for too long and uh and we had a big you know upward correction and and kobe pushed to store that i don’t know i i was surprised to see the prices go up as fast as they did but uh i don’t see them i i don’t see what would is their bubble to pop i don’t know i don’t know at least you know prescott is a very unique market and um we’re kind of a special little bubble here so you can’t really compare us to the other national markets yeah you know that’s my opinion yeah um and we’re small too we’re not a big player it’s not like we need millions of people moving here to get this right i mean do we have a crystal ball no no but i do have a crystal ball but i but i can’t use it to predict the future i’ve tried i just can’t okay so anyway we just thought we’d share this little two-bit uh two cents of information and uh just our personal opinion of course it is an opinion it’s not fact that’s right it’s not scientific but we just thought we’d give our little two cents of info on how we think things are going we are a very special market here so anyway if you’re thinking about buying or selling give us a call or you can go to our information site that’s pickle411.com whether you’re a buyer seller somewhere in between there’s information that’s waiting for you absolutely we’re here toll free it’s all free it’s all free all free people you don’t have to pay anything it’s free no subscription yeah all right just a final note if you are on the verge of retirement and thinking of retirement don’t put off retirement too long don’t do that don’t do that don’t wait don’t wait until you’re too old we have met so many people here who were like wow i should have done this years ago i’m loving my life here and we love it through extension we’re not quite retired but we are having fun anyway so give us a call diane and randall bro with our famous pickle whatever it is [Music] oh [Music] a lot of people anyway